natural selection as a cause probability, chance, and…自然选择作为一个原因的概率，机会，和….docVIP

PAGE PAGE 1 Natural Selection as a Cause: Probability, Chance, and Selective Biases. Abstract To what do natural selection and genetic drift refer? To causes, as is usually thought? Or to mere statistical effects? The question arises because assessing causes faces specific difficulties when stochastic processes are concerned. In this paper, I establish that a central anti-causalist argument from Matthen and Ariew (2002) does not work, because selection doesnt depend on chance (or unknown factors) in the manner that current analogies with games of chance suggest. I then explain how a clear understanding of how chance and biases are involved in natural selection supports one form of causalism, while every other form has indeed to be rejected.  The tossing coin analogy against causalist positions Do natural selection and genetic drift name causes of biological evolution? During the past few years, this question has been discussed intensely in the philosophy of biology. On the one hand are those who answer positively: Sober, Rosenberg, Millstein, Brandon, Bouchard, Pfeifer… I will call them the causalists. On the other hand are those who argue that “natural selection” and “genetic drift” refer to mere statistical effects because of the role played by probabilities in contemporary evolution theory. In a series of articles published since 2000, Walsh, Matthen, Ariew, and, for a period, Lewens (collectively referred to as WALM) have forcefully defended this position. Here, I will consider an argument put forth by Mohan Matthen and Andre Ariew (MA) in 2002 and show that contrary to what they claim it does not establish that all causalist positions are untenable. Let us get to the heart of the matter by presenting the coin-tossing analogy that is the pivot of MAs argument. It appears in the discussion of the first variant of causalism that they consider, Sober’s causalism, which identifies selection and drift with forces (1984). But does it really make sense to say th