长江经济带原油供需预测及能源安全的策略的研究.docVIP

长江经济带原油供需预测及能源安全的策略的研究 　　摘要：长江经济带是我国新一轮改革开放实施新区域开放开发的战略，其沿线分布着我国的五大钢铁基地、七大炼油厂以及上海、南京、仪征等地的多个石油化工基地，逐步成为了我国的能源高消耗地区，但该经济带却是我国的能源缺乏区，经济发展所需重要能源之一的原油，90%以上依靠进口或从外省（区）调入。能源安全已然成为该地区经济增长的一大制约因素。认识并有效解决长江经济带的能源供需矛盾，是保障该地区经济正常运转的重要途径。本文构建了灰色系统GM（1，1）预测模型，运用MAT―LAB2012a计量分析软件对长江经济带九省二市的原油供需量进行预测，以此分析未来该地区的能源安全问题，并依据分析结果提出相应对策建议，以保障该地区经济的正常运转。关键词：长江经济带；原油；供需预测；能源安全 　　DOI：10.16315/j.stm.2016.02.008 　　中图分类号：F276.3 　　文献标志码：A 　　The predictiOil of crude oil supply and demand of Yangtze River economic belt and the study of energy security poUcy HAo Ya-ping 　　Abstract：Yangtze River economic belf is the strategy of a new round of reform and opening policy.A1ong YangtzeRiver economic belt distribute our country’s nve major steel base，seven maior oil re6nedes and a pluralitv of pet.rochemical base，which has beeome the regions with high energy consumption gradually.However，this economicbelt is the energy shortage area of our country，one of the important energy required flor economic development――crude oil，more than 90%dependeat on impon or transfer from other proviaces（or regions）.Energy seeurity hasbecome one of constraints of this region’s eeonomic growt’h.Recognizing and effectively addressing the eontradictionof the eriergy supply and dgroand of the Yangtze River economic belt is an important way to guarantee the norlTlaloperation of the region’seconomy.In this paper，we rise the gray system GM（1，1）prediction model and MAT-LAB2012a econometric analysis software to predict the supply and demand of erude oiI of the Yangtze River eco-nomic belt，and arialyze the energy security of the region in the future，and put forward suggestions to safeguard thenornlal operation of the region’s eeonomy based on restlhs of the arialysis. 　　Keywords：Yangtze River eeoaomic belt；erude oil；prediction of supply and demand；energy SeCLIFity 　　能源作为经济和社会发展的推动力，是一个国家经济运转的血液，同时也是一个国家经济与社会发展所必须面对的重大问题。长江经济带是中国新一轮改革开放和经济转型所实施的新区域开放开发战略，其沿线分布着鄂、湘、皖、赣、浙、苏、沪、川、渝、黔等九省二市，该地区拥有广阔的经济腹地和发展空间，正在依托国家相关政策，逐步发展成为除了中