《关于我国国民储蓄率影响因素的统计研究》-毕业学术论文设计.docVIP

PAGE 2 关于我国国民储蓄率影响因素的统计研究 内容摘要 2002年开始,低消费、高投资、高出口逐渐成为中国经济失衡的代名词。这种结构失衡的背后实际上是长期困扰我们的高储蓄难题,中国宏观经济几乎所有问题都可归因于此[1]。高储蓄率会导致商品需求的减少，降低企业生产的积极性，从而影响企业的再生产，尤其是在金融危机爆发以后，西方国家一直希望我国能促进国内消费，促进世界经济的发展。为了研究我国国民储蓄率的影响因素，我选取了相关变量建立计量经济学模型，这样能够更充分可靠的说明各因素的影响程度，取得的结果可以为政府的决策提供依据，以更好地促进我国的经济发展，也可以更有效得为世界的发展做出贡献。 关键词：高储蓄率 计量经济学模型 政府决策 Statistical research about the influential factors of national savings rate Abstract Since 2002,low consumption、high investment、high export gradually become the Chines economic unequalitys pronoun.The background against the structural imbalance is the difficult problem about high savings rate,which attribute to the Chines most macro-economy problem[1]。The high savings rate may lead to the decrease of demand for commodities,it may also reduce the production enthusiasm of the enterprise,thus affect the reproduction,most of all,after the outbreak of the financial crisis,the west always expect that Chine can improve domestic consumptio- n,thus promote the development of world economy.In order to searching the influential factors of national savings rate,I have chosen many related variables to build a econometrics model,which can better describe the degree of the influence.The results can provide policy basis for government.It can better promote the development of world economy,and can contribute to the development of the world. Key word：high savings rate econometrics model policy basis 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc1630 引言 PAGEREF _Toc1630 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc2600 一、研究意义 PAGEREF _Toc2600 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc14421 （一）现实意义 PAGEREF _Toc14421 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc27937 （二）理论意义 PAGEREF _Toc27937 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc3319 二、指标的选取 PAGEREF _Toc3319 3 HYPERLINK \l _Toc15921 （一）影响因素分析 PAGEREF _Toc15921 4 HYPERLINK \l _Toc22015 （二）数据来源说明 PAGEREF _Toc22015 4 HYPERLINK \l _Toc13071 三、模型的构建 PAGEREF _Toc13071 4 HYPERLINK \l _Toc31141 （一）模型形式选择 PAGEREF _Toc31141 4 HYPERLINK \l _Toc27396 （二）模型的估计和检验 PAGEREF _Toc27396 4