一九六年代以来台湾地区之气温变化与经济发展的关系.PDF

地理學報 第四十期：99-116 (2005) 99 JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE (40) : 99-116 (2005) 一九六○年代以來臺灣地區之 氣溫變化與經濟發展的關係 The Correlation between Temperature Changes and Economic Development in Taiwan since 1960 賴栗葦* 姜善鑫** Li-Va Lay Shan-Hsin Chiang Abstract In the past 100 years, the rates of temperature changes have been obvious in the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the natural and artificial factors that could potentially influence annual mean temperature, annual mean maximum temperature (Tmax), annual mean minimum temperature (Tmin) as well as annual mean diurnal temperature range in Taiwan and to know the importance and the contribution of these factors. The product-moment correlation, the multi-regression model and the time series regression model were used to analyze the temperature data and potential factors affecting temperature changes for the period from 1961 to 2000. The results indicated that the artificial factors influencing the temperature changes were more important than the natural ones. Furthermore, the temperature changes in big cities were significantly correlated to the amount of industries. Finally, the rate of increase or decrease for Tmax and Tmin differed among big cities with similar climate conditions and the correlations between temperature changes and the amount of different * 中央研究院地球科學研究所博士後研究員 Post Doctor, Institute of Earth Science, Academia Sinica. ** 國立臺灣大學地理環境資源學系教授 Professor, Department of Geo