中国与中亚五国贸易关系实证分析.docVIP

中国与中亚五国贸易关系的实证分析 　　[摘要]作为连接中国与中亚等国家重要的新通道，“一带一路”建设对中国未来开放的经济格局具有深刻影响。而中亚五国作为连接欧亚大陆的要塞，其地理位置的优越性和重要性不言而喻，中亚五国是中国古代丝绸之路通往欧洲的必经之路，也是 “一带一路”建设的重要节点。旨在通过实证分析，找出中国与中亚五国贸易的影响因素，并探讨如何弱化其阻碍作用，提出针对性的对策建议。 　　[关键词]中亚五国；贸易关系；引力模型；一带一路 　　[中图分类号]F740.2[文献标识码]A[文章编号]2095-3283（2018）07-0042-07 　　Empirical Research on Trade Relations between China and the Five Central Asian Countries 　　Zhang CaihuaLiu Weifa 　　（Xin Hua College of Zhongshan University， Guangzhou 510520，China） 　　Abstract： As an important and new channel to connect China and Central Asia， the construction of “The Belt and Road Initiative” has a profound influence on China’s economic opening pattern. As the fortress connecting of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge， the five Central Asian countries， including Kazakhstan， Uzbekistan， Kyrgyzstan， Turkmenistan and Tajikistan， are self-evident in the superiority and importance of their geographical position， besides， they are the only way for China to connect with Europe in the ancient Silk Road as well as the important node under the construction of The Belt and Road Initiative today. In the current unstable environment of Central Asia， how to develop trade with this area is becoming an important topic which has been studied by many scholars. Since the five Central Asian countries have unique geographic and resource advantages. It is inevitable that China will have trade relations with them in the future. The purpose of this paper is to find out the factors that influence the trade between China and the five Central Asian countries through empirical model analysis， and to discuss how to weaken its hindrance and put forward some pertinent countermeasures and suggestions. 　　Keywords： Five Central Asian Countries； Trade Relationship； Gravity Model； The Belt and Road Initiative 　　[作者?介]张才华（1982-），讲师，硕士，研究方向：国际经济学、区域经济学。一、引言 　　中亚地区历来是古丝绸之路必经之地，中国与中亚友好交往绵延数千年，曾经共同推动古代丝绸之路的发展与繁荣。1992年1月2日到6日，中国分别与新独立的中亚五国建交，历经25年的发展，从“玉石之路”到“丝绸之路”，再到后来的“上海五国”、“上海经合组织”，中国与中亚五国在政治、经贸、安全、人文各