风电功率组合预测模型的分析-检测技术及自动化装置专业论文.docxVIP

重庆大学 重庆大学硕士学位论文 英文摘要 PAGE PAGE IV tendecy of the change of future wind power and gain very high predicting accuracy. Study of wind power multi-step prediction method: based on the improvement of the horizontal combined model, the paper proposes the vertical combined model based on wavelet decomposition and phase space reconstruction technology. According to the characteristics of each component, they are divided into low frequency components and high frequency components; according to the characteristics of each frequency, select the appropriate single prediction method, the low frequency components reconstructed by means of phase space reconstruction technology are forecasted by Radical Basis Function(RBF) neural network; while the high frequency components are forecasted by rolling time series method; The final consequence can be obtained by combinating the forecast result of each component. The vertical combination model combines the powerful generalization ability and universal approximation ability of RBF neural network ,with the advantage of updating the model according to data changes of rolling time series method. Simulation results show that the method has a good multi-step prediction ability and can realize multi-step prediction with high precision. Keywords: wind power, combined model, optimization criterions, induced ordered weighted harmonic averaging operator, wavelet decomposition, phase space reconstruction. 重庆大学 重庆大学硕士学位论文 目 录 目 录 中文摘要 I 英文摘要 II 1 绪 论 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 1 1.1.1 研究背景 1 1.1.2 研究意义 1 1.2 风电功率预测研究现状 2 1.2.1 国外预测系统研究现状 2 1.2.2 国内预测系统研究现状 3 1.2.3 风电功率预测方法 4 1.2.4 不足之处 6 1.3 风电功率预测评价指标 6 1.4 本论文工作 6 2 基本理论介绍 8 2.1 时间序列的混沌属性 8 2.1.1 时间序列的混沌识别 8 2.1.2 时间序列的相空间重构 9 2.1.3 风电功率时间序列的相空间重构 10 2.2 各单项预测方法 11 2.2.1 时间序列预测法 11 2.2.2 灰色预测法 13 2.2.3 BP 神经网络法 15 RBF 神经网络 16 GRNN 神经网络法 17 2.2.6 支持向量机预测法 18 2.3 小结 21 3 基于不同优化准则的风电功率横向组合模型 22 3.1 单项预测模型的选择 22 3.1.1 最大-最小贴近度的基本概念 23 3.1.2 单项预测模型的择优原理 23 3.1.3 单项预测模型的