电力设备投标报价风险分析及决策研究-电气工程专业论文.docx

上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文摘要 上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文 摘要 第 第 I 页 万方数据 电力设备投标报价风险分析及决策研究 摘 要 众所周知，电力设备投标是一项充满风险的业务，其风险和利润并 存。在市场竞争愈加激烈的今天，对于电力设备制造企业而言，如何在 电力建设工程招投标中决定是否参与投标，以及如何在招投标中降低企 业可能面对的风险，增强企业自身竞争力，已经成为电力设备制造行业 的一个热点讨论问题[1]。 本文从研究背景和研究意义出发，先是论述了国内外的研究现状， 再逐步进行电力设备的投标报价研究和投标报价风险研究，之后对我公 司的两大真实案例进行计算和分析[2]。在案例分析部分，本文主要采用了 层次分析法、模糊综合评价法以及 Friedman 投标报价模型，经过实践发 现一则成功一则不成功。针对失败案例，本文提出需要再反馈回风险识 别阶段，结合现实情况充分运用投标报价技巧，以完成最初所设立的目 标。可以说，本文充分地贯彻了“理论联系实际”的宗旨。 不仅如此，本文还有不少的创新之处，其中就包括在进行风险分析 时，将层次分析法与模糊综合评价法进行结合运用，这比单独运用某一 种方法更为直观、清晰，也便于理解和分析。 关键词：电力项目，投标报价，风险分析，模糊综合评价法，弗里 德曼模型 上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文AB 上海交通大学工程硕士学位论文 ABSTRACT 第 第 II 页 万方数据 THE RISK ANALYSIS AND DECISION-MAKING RESEARCH OF POWER EQUIPMENT BIDDING ABSTRACT As we all know, electric power equipment bidding is a risk business where the risk and profit coexist. Under this competitive market, for a power equipments manufacture, how to make the decision on whether to participate in power construction project bidding, and how to reduce the risk and strengthen the competitiveness during the bidding, have become a hot issue in the industry of electric power equipment manufacturing. The research of this paper includes three parts. Firstly, introduce research background of the title and research status at home and abroad. Secondly, study the risk of bidding quotation in power equipment project. Finally, calculate and analyze two real cases of our company. The paper use AHP, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Friedmans Model to certificate the two cases, and find one is successful and another one is unsuccessful. According to the failure case, it is necessary to feedback to the risk identification stage and make full use of the bidding skills, so as to achieve the original target. This paper fully make theory work in practice. Furthermore, there are a lot of innovation. Such as, this paper use both AHP, and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation in the period of risk analysis, which is more direct and clear than just use one method. Keywords: Ele