电力企业运行与维护外包风险管理分析-工业工程专业论文.docx

重庆大学硕士学位论文 重庆大学硕士学位论文 IV IV industry status quo are analyzed; then the significance， content， and procedures of electric enterprises operation and maintenance outsourcing are studied， to pave the way for the risk identification， risk assessment and risk response right below. Secondly ， the main sources of risk of electric enterprises operation and maintenance outsourcing are analyzed according to their particularity， and the views of a number of experts are consulted and summarized by applying the Delphi method， the list of risk of electric enterprises operation and maintenance outsourcing is built， then， in accordance with principle of building a risk assessment indicator system， the list of risks is compared， classified， combined and removed， the final risk evaluation index system is formed， and interpretations of part of indicators are given. Thirdly， the methods of risk assessment are reviewed， and then the combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive mathematical Evaluation method is selected as the inherent hierarchy and ambiguity of power enterprises operation and maintenance outsourcing risk indicators. AHP is used to calculate the importance weight for each indicator to the upper level， on this basis， the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to establish the evaluation matrix and the multi-factor fuzzy comprehensive evaluation， the mathematical model of evaluation is built. Fourthly, the countermeasures for the “A” kind major risk factors are put forward from four points of the risk averse， risk control， risk transfer and risk retention according to the division results of the various sub-factors， which offer practical proposals for power enterprises operation and maintenance outsourcing risk control. Finally, an example is given to show the risk assessment system is feasible and effective. Keyword: Electric power enterprise, Operation and maintenance outsourcing, Risk management, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Fuzzy