人才宏观需求的灰色预测模型23573.pdfVIP

□ ＊ 、 ◆张　焰　[重庆三峡学院, 重庆 万州404000] 　:首先用GM(1, 1)模型从三次产业从业人数的历史数据中分析出其自身的规律, 加入国民经济这 个决定性因 素, 通过统计软件SPSS 分别拟合出三次产业从业人数与国民经济的曲线方程, 最后采用最优组合预测模型, 将回归分析 和GM (1, 1)两种模型所提供的信息融合在 一起, 使预测效果更加全面和准确, 以期能为政府规划、优化就业系统的规模 和结构, 合理配置社会人力资源提供理论依据。 :灰色理论;回归分析;GM (1, 1);SPSS;最优组合预测 Abstract:　First, the models analyzed out the law from the historical data of the number of people engaged in the three in- dustries, and add in the key factor of national economy, by use of statistical sof tware of SPSS, to get the curvilinear e ua- tion of numbers of people engaged in tertiary indust ry and national economy, at last make use of optimum assembly predic- tion models, and combine the information provided by the models of regression analysis and GM (1, 1), to make the pre- 二 ★ diction more comprehensive and more precise, conse uently provide theoretical reference for the government planning and ★ 六 optimizing of em ployment systems scale and structure, and the reasonable assembly of social human resources. 年 第 Key w ords:　gray theory;regression analysis;GM (1, 1);SPSS;optimum assembly prediction 四 期 　 :C961.9　　　　:A 　　　　:1009-1289(2006)04-0527-03