体制扭曲、地区竞争和产能过剩形成机理.PDFVIP

体制扭曲、地区竞争与产能过剩的形成机理 江飞涛 耿强 吕大国 李晓萍 内容提要:以“潮涌现象”解释产能过剩的形成机理，在学术界和政策部门颇有影响。 然而，这一解释令人质疑：第一，并不存在企业对未来有前景行业市场需求所谓的共识；第 二，其模型中可能出现的产能过剩是不完备信息假设条件下对均衡状态的偏离，而这只是现 实市场的常态；第三，其模型高估需求急剧扩张对于产能过剩出现的概率和程度的影响。体 制扭曲背景下，地区对于投资的补贴性竞争才是导致产能过剩最为重要的原因。本文进一步 建立模型详细说明：地方政府低价供地等所导致的补贴效应，地方政府低价供地以及协调配 套贷款等行为下企业自有投资过低所导致严重的风险外部化效应，扭曲了企业的投资行为， 导致企业过度的产能投资、行业产能过剩。本文研究表明，从根本上解决产能过剩问题需要 在土地产权、环境保护体制、金融体制、财政体制等方面进一步推进改革。 关键词:产能过剩；投资补贴；成本外部化；风险外部化 JEL 分类号: D43，D82，L13，L16 Mechanism of Excess Capacity Based on China’s Regional Competit ion and Market Distortion: a Discussion with Professor Lin Justin Yifu Abstract: This paper focuses on how the defect of China’s economy system and the unhealthy competition of local governments lead to the formation of redundant construction and excess capacity: China’s fiscal decentralization and the political promotion system between local officials based on the growth of GDP lead to the intensive competition of capital inflow, resulting in strong motive forces of local governments for intervening enterprises’ investment and issuing many preferential policies. Defined ambiguously property rights of land, the serious defect of environment protection and the problem of the soft-restricted of financial institution make room for local governments to undersell industry land，to sacrifice environment intending to provide help for enterprises to obtain financial resources, which plays important roles in competitions. The effects caused by local governments’ behavior mentioned above is the result of the local government’s behavior of underselling land so as to support loan, to distort enterprises’ investment behavior, which leads to excess investment capacity, redundant construction and excess capacity. For the purpose of settling these problems, we should promote reformation in the field of land property right, environment protection mechanism, financial system, and the promotion system of loc