改进决策树模型支持下饮用水水源地健康风险评价.PDFVIP

第29卷第1期 水摇 资摇 源摇 保摇 护 2013年1月 Vol.29 No.1 WATER RESOURCES PROTECTION Jan. 2013 DOI:10.3969/ j.issn.1004 6933.2013.01.007 改进决策树模型支持下的饮用水水源地健康风险评价 程摇 斌,王菲凤,张江山 (福建师范大学环境科学研究所,福建 福州摇 350007) 摘要:为了解决传统水环境健康风险评价模型中存在的忽略污染物浓度和时效性问题,基于决策树 的分类思想方法,引入熵权法确定各指标的权重值大小,提出决策树综合评价模型,并应用于2009 年FZ 市饮用水水源地水环境健康风险评价。 结果表明,2009 年该市饮用水水源地水环境健康风 -5 -5 险值为6郾215伊10 ,处于芋级、中风险状态,小于传统模型的计算结果(7郾833伊10 )。 认为虽评价 结果为同一风险等级状态,但研究建立的综合模型可提高评价的准确度和精度。 关键词:决策树;熵权;饮用水水源地;健康风险评价 中图分类号:X820.2摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1004 6933(2013)01 0027 05 An improved decision tree model for health risk assessment of drinking water source CHENG Bin,WANG Feifeng,ZHANGJiangshan (Institute of Environmental Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou350007,China) Abstract:The concentrations of pollutants and timeliness have been ignored in traditional water environmental health risk assessmentmodels. Tosolvetheseproblems,animproveddecisiontreecomprehensiveevaluationmodel was put forward based on the theory of decision tree classification,and the entropy method was used to determine the pollutants爷weights. The model was applied to health risk assessment of the potablewater source in FZ City in 2009. The results show that the water environmental health risk coefficient of the potable water source in FZ City 鄄5 was6郾215伊10 ,being at level IIIwith a medium鄄degree risk. It waslower than that calculated by the traditional 鄄5 model,i.e. ,7郾833伊10 ,which hasa same鄄level risk. Theproposed model improvesthe accuracy andprecision of evaluation. Key words:decision tree;entropy weight;drinking