04长期财务计划与增长.ppt

4.3 外部融资需求和增长 在公司处于低速增长情况下，内部融资（留存收益）即可满足公司的资金需求； 但随着增长率的提升，内部融资无法满足，公司需要借助外界资本市场进行融资； 因此，增长率和外部融资需求之间的关系在财务计划中非常重要 3-* * * * * * * * * * The information for these calculations is given in Table 3.13. This firm could grow assets at 9.65% without raising additional external capital. Relying solely on internally generated funds will increase equity (retained earnings are part of equity) and assets without an increase in debt. Consequently, the firm’s leverage will decrease over time. If there is an optimal amount of leverage, as we will discuss in later chapters, then the firm may want to borrow to maintain that optimal level of leverage. This idea leads us to the sustainable growth rate. * Note that no new equity is issued. The sustainable growth rate is substantially higher than the internal growth rate. This is because we are allowing the company to issue debt as well as use internal funds. Commonly, sustainable growth is calculated as only the numerator of our formula (ROE * b), but this assumes we calculate ROE based on beginning, rather than ending, equity. * The first three components come from the ROE and the Du Pont identity. It is important to note at this point that growth is not the goal of a firm in and of itself. Growth is only important so long as it continues to maximize shareholder value. * * * 毕金玲 东北财经大学金融学院 bijinling2001@163.com 第4章 Copyright ? 2010 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin 长期财务计划与增长 基本要求 能够使用销售百分比法来制定财务计划 理解资本结构和股利政策对公司发展能力的影响 本章内容 4.1 什么是财务计划 4.2 财务模型 4.3 外部融资与增长 4.4 财务计划模型的一些注意事项 4.1 什么是财务计划 什么是财务计划？ 财务计划是对公司未来各种情况的预计，最终体现在报表中 4.2 财务模型 1.销售预测 2.预计资产负债表和利润表 3.新资产的投资 – 由资本预算决策决定 4.财务杠杆程度 – 由资本结构决策决定 5.支付给股东的现金 – 由股利政策决定 财务报表 简易 利润表 简易 资产负债表 收入 1000 资产 500 负债 250 成本 800 权益 250 净利润 200 总额 500 总额 500 简易 利润表 简易 资产负债表 收入 1200 资产 600 负债 300 成本 960 权益 300 净利润 240 总额 600 总额 600 4.2 财务模型—销售收入百分比法 第一步，预测销售收入增长率 第二步，预计利润表 预计利润表之后需要计算两个指标： 股利支付率=支付股利/净利润=44/132=1/3 留存收益比率=留存收益/净利润=88/13