基于GIS的浙江省柑橘低温冻害风险分析-环境科学专业论文.docxVIP

基于 GIS 的浙江省柑橘低温冻害风险分析 摘 要 以农业区划为理论依据，以浙江省63个气象站1971～2006年的气象数据为数据源， 采用地理信息系统技术、层次分析法，对浙江省柑橘种植区进行区划。在此基础上进行 低温冻害风险分析，并求得冻害综合指标。主要研究结论如下： （1）浙江省大致可以分为5大柑橘主产区：①衢州橘区，柑橘种植面积为3.26×104 hm2；②台州橘区，柑橘种植面积为3.11×104 hm2；③金华橘区，柑橘种植面积为2.46 ×104 hm2；④丽水橘区，柑橘种植面积为2.01×104 hm2；⑤宁波橘区，柑橘种植面积为 1.32×104 hm2。柑橘次产区分布广泛，主要集中在浙江省中部。浙江省北部和一部分南 部地区为柑橘基本不产区。 （2）冬季负积温绝对值呈现逐年减少趋势，90年代至今，冬暖现象突出。冬季变 暖对柑橘的生长发育有利有弊，负积温绝对值减少，柑橘冬眠期会明显缩短，影响柑橘 的正常生长。根据统计分析，各地区出现的春冻日变化趋势大致相同，70年代和80年代 春冻日最多，明显高于其它年代。春冻日数最大值出现在70年代，90年代以后至今，气 候变暖明显，大部分年份无春冻日。 （3）以极端最低气温、持续日数、最大降温幅度和有害积温为致灾因子，4个致灾 因子之间相关性明显，对全省来说很具有代表性，求出的冻害综合指标可以用来评估柑 橘的受灾程度。 关键词：柑橘；冻害；GIS；风险分析；浙江 The study on Analysis about Citrus Trees Low-temperature Disaster Risk based on GIS technology in Zhejiang Province Abstract This paper takes agricultural zone as theoretical foundation ,covers meteorological data which are 1971～2006 as data resource. With the supports of GIS, Analytical Hierarchy Process, the paper analyzes Citrus trees low-temperature disaster risk in Zhejiang province and obtained freezing in index. The main conclusions are as followings: Citrus planting can be divided into five main producing in Zhejiang province.①Qu zhou producing, Citrus growing area is 32,600 hectares;②Tai zhou producing, Citrus growing area is 31,100 hectares;③Jin hua producing, Citrus growing area is 24,600 hectares;④Li shui producing, Citrus growing area is 13,200 hectares. Citrus plays producing divis broad,which is in central Zhejiang Province. Northern and southern part of Zhejiang Province are the non-citrus producing areas. Absolute value of negative accumulated temperature in winter to decrease year by year, Since the 90s, winter phenomenon is highlights. Winter warming on the growth of citrus is pros and cons, absolute reduction of negative accumulated temperature, Citrus will be significantly shorter hibernation.Basing on Statistical analysis, the spring freeze are the most in 70s and 80s which is significantly higher than in other years. The maximum data of s