基于GMDH理论的预测与预警模型及实证分析——以四川省进出口预测与预警为例数量经济学专业论文.docxVIP

ABSTRACT search was established. In order to maintain the sustainable development of foreign trade, early- warning analysis of major export products was done on the basis of forecast. Logit model which is used most frequently currently was improved, with the introduction of GMDH group and algorithms and the use of computer automatically investigating the relationship among variables. Thus, the Logit model based on GMDH was structured. Then, the early-warning analysis of major export products were applied one by one in accordance with the characteristics of Sichuan Province. Reference was provided for the decision-making of government departments as well as import export enterprises. Key words: GMDH import export, structural mutation, forecast, early- warning analysis 目录 目 录 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark0 第一章 导论 ......................................................... 1 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark1 1.1 选题的背景以及意义 .......................................... 1 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark2 1.2 国内外文献综述 .............................................. 2 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark3 1.2.1 基于 GMDH 预测理论的研究 2 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark4 1.2.2 经济系统预警研究 ...................................... 4 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark5 1.2.3 中国进出口预测与预警研究 ............................... 6 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark6 1.3 本文的研究内容与技术路线 .................................... 9 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark7 1.3.1 研究内容 ............................................... 9 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark8 1.3.2 技术路线 ............................................. 10 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark9 第二章 GMDH 预测模型 11 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark10 2.1 GMDH 预测模型 11 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark11 2.1.1 GMDH 预测模型的基本算法 11 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark12 2.1.2 GMDH 预测模型的显著特点 13 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark13 2.2 GMDH 预测模型对四川省进出口贸易预测 14 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark14 2.2.1 四川省进出口数据的基本特点 ........................... 14 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark15 2.2.2 四川省进出口指标的选取 ............................... 15 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark16 2.2.3 GMDH 预测模型的预测结果 15 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark17 2.2