基于anfis的城市集中供热网参数预测研究-控制理论与控制工程专业论文.docxVIP

内蒙古工业大学硕士学位论文 内蒙古工业大学硕士学位论文 内蒙古工业大学硕士学位论文 内蒙古工业大学硕士学位论文 摘 要 城市集中供热系统已经成为我国北方冬季供暖的一种主要形式，热网调节技术和 计算机控制技术的应用，提高了我国供热调节水平，而预测集中供热系统未来一段时 间内的参数变化趋势，对热网的运行、调节均起着重要作用。 本文首先对模糊控制、神经网络的基本原理和优缺点进行了阐述，利用 MATLAB 模糊逻辑工具箱构造了神经模糊推理系统——ANFIS,并将其应用到参数预测之中。 ANFIS 是模糊推理系统与神经网络相结合的产物，它能从所给的样本数据中提取和 调整模糊控制规则和隶属度函数，使模糊规则和隶属度函数的自动获取成为可能。 其次结合集中供热网系统及其参数特点，尝试着将 ANFIS 应用到热网参数的预 测中。通过对热网中的不确定信息的分析，采用基于 ANFIS 结构的模型，用误差反 传算法来训练网络的连接权系数，以呼市热力公司某供热站的供热网参数为研究对象 予以建模和预测，其结果表明该算法具有较好的泛化、学习、映射能力。因此基于神 经模糊推理系统的供热网参数预测方法研究具有一定的参考价值。 关键词： 模糊控制；神经网络；神经模糊推理系统；集中供热网；参数预测 Abstract The city central heating network has become a dominating form of supplying central heating in the north of China in winter. The application of condition and computer centralized control in heat supply network improve the level of heating supply system. In this network, Changing Tendency of the Parameters Forecasting will play a key role in controlling and running the city central heating network. At first, this paper expatiates on the basic principles and advantages as well as disadvantages of neural network, fuzzy control. And by virtue of fuzzy logic toolbox of Matlab, we set up adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system--ANFIS, which is applied to parameters forecasting system. ANFIS is the product of fuzzy inference system and neural network. It can abstract and moderate fuzzy control system and grade of membership functions from given data, which makes the automate creation of fuzzy rules and grade of membership functions possible. Then this paper introduces the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system on changing tendency of the parameters forecasting and presents a method for thermal power supply parameters modeling and forecasting based on a ANFIS model by analyzing the indefinite information on central heating network, in which the Back Propagation algorithms is used to train the connection weights of the adaptive neural network. It has been shown by the modeling and forecasting results about the central heating