天山北坡NDVI对气候因子响应的敏感性分析.docx

天山北坡NDVI对气候因子响应的敏感性分析 摘要：利用1982―2006年8 km×8 km的NASA/GIMMS半月合成的归一化植被指数（NDVI）数据集和天山北坡乌鲁木齐、石河子、克拉玛依等11个站点的气象数据分析了天山北坡NDVI动态变化与气温、降水变化的响应特征及敏感性。结果表明，25年来，天山北坡的NDVI呈波动性增加的趋势，植被覆盖增加;并且在全球背景下气温和降水也呈现不同程度的增加，气候暖湿化趋势明显;年际NDVI与年均气温存在一般正相关，与降水存在极显著正相关;主要生长季NDVI变化与同期气温存在较低正相关，与降水存在极显著正相关;进行滞后分析，发现当月NDVI与前月气温呈负相关，与前月降水存在极显著正相关。说明天山北坡NDVI对气温的敏感性比较低，对降水的敏感性较高。 关键词：天山北坡;植被指数（NDVI）;气候因子;敏感性 中图分类号：Q142 ? ? ? ?文献标识码：A ? ? ? ?文章编号：0439-8114（2014）19-5116-05 DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2014.21.016 The Sensitivity of Vegetation Index and Climate Factors in North Tianshan Mountain XU Li-ping，GUO Peng，LIU Lin，ZHANG Zheng-yong，LI Hui-ting （College of Science，Shihezi University，Shihezi 832003， Xinjiang，China） Abstract： Using 8 km × 8 km NASA/GIMMS half of the synthesis of the normalized new NDVI （normalized difference vegetation index） data set and the meteorological data of eleven sites in north Tianshan mountain， NDVI dynamic changes with the temperature and the relationship between the change of precipitation from year 1982 to 2006 was analyzed. The results showed that during 25 years， NDVI in north Tianshan mountain increased in fluctuation and the vegetation cover increased. The temperature and precipitation increased in the different degrees under the global environment. The annual NDVI and annual temperature was positively correlated while the change of main growing season was positively correlated with precipitation. The lagging analysis showed that NDVI was negatively correlated with the temperature of the previous month and positively correlated with precipitation of previous month. The sensitivity of the NDVI temperature was low while the sensitivity of precipitation was high in the north Tianshan mountain. Key words： north Tianshan mountain; vegetation index; climate factor; sensitivity 植被在全球变化研究中充当“指示器”的作用[1]。研究植被覆盖变化与气候因子的相互关系已经成为全球变化研究的一个重要领域[2-4]。归一化植被指数（NDVI）是用于植被动态监测的有效指标，近年来，国内外学者利用NDVI对地表植被覆盖变化及其与气温、降水之间的关系和响应特征作了大量研究。国外学者通过对位于中低纬度的美国中部地区、欧亚大陆以及非洲等地区研究发现降水量是影响NDVI变化的