碳排放强度变化及其影响因素1997-2007-IIOA!.DOC

Submitted to 18th International Input-Output Conference PAGE PAGE 1 The Sources of Carbon Intensity Change in China: 1997-2007 This paper was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Hongxia Zhang1, Xinye Zheng1, Xiuli Liu2 1 School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Zhongguancun Street, No. 59, Beijing, China, 100872 2 Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zhongguancun East Road No.55, Beijing, China, 100190 ABSTRACT This paper employs input-output model and structural decomposition analysis to analyze the historical change in energy-related carbon intensity in China in the period of 1997-2007, based on the 1997, 2002 and 2007 Chinese input-output tables. The carbon intensity (CO2 emission per unit of GDP) is explained from the demand side and also the supply side. The main factors affecting carbon intensity include the production technology, the energy and environmental technology, the final demand allocation structure, the product structure of each kind of demand (including household consumption, capital formation, exports and others), and the household emission intensity. We can induce the effect of the industrial structure change by the production technology and the demand pattern. The results show that the big decrease of carbon intensity in 1997-2002 mainly attributes to the technology, the great reduction of energy intensity and the change of the production technology. However, in 2002-1997, there are significant changes: (1) the production technology makes the carbon intensity increase, because of the increases in input coefficients of high carbon emission materials; (2)exports becomes much more important for its great negative effect on carbon intensity; (3) the potential of household consumption in decarbonizing decrease, and the negative effect of capital formation increase; (4) the negative influence of industrial structure increases gr