乌鲁木齐河流域径流模拟及其对气候变化的响应研究水文学及水资源专业论文.docxVIP

Simulation Simulation of Runof!f in Urumqi River Basin and Its R℃sponse to CIimate Cha nge Abstract In recent years，the state of酉obal water and hydrology material recycling process by the impact of climate change is Very obVious．Especially to hi曲altitIJde mountain glaciers and snow melting water which is the major of water for the撕d imand river baSin is the most sigllificant．In the northwest arid which is far厅om oceaIl，ice and snow melting water is not only importam of water supply for the 10cal surViVal，but also local seaSonal fIooding of the main reasons．Therefore，it is important for me establishment of suitable to distrjbuted hydmlo酉c model for the arid inland riVer baSin． 111is study selected in urumqi RiVer BaSin hero bri电e hydrolo西cal station stud)，are如which baSed the nearly 60 ye2ur hydrometeor0109ical data analysis of hydr0109ical and meteor0109ical elements eVolution rules and characteristics，and the of independent research aIld deVelopment of water of China Institute of water conservancy and Hydr叩ower EaSyDHM model，combined with basin DEM， landuse，so订够pes，meteorological and hydrological data’which built set of distributed hydrological model which based EaSyDHM Ur啪qi RiVer Wa土ershed and也rough the hypothesis of t11ree climate change scenarios described n豇10fr change process within the watershed，which proVided technical support for the flood forecasting and seaSonal flooding．Studies show that： (1) In Urumqi RiVer BaS氓Rainfan sho、ved clear铲owth仃end，and temperature presemed significant increase，July temperature ma)【imum，J锄uaD7 temperan】re minimum．Snow in the basin was not obVious downward tren也aJld inter a皿ual Variation of runoff increased，which had big years di恐rence．111e factors which produce the iruler diameter of the driVing basin temperature，precipitation， snow area，and the innuence of each factor nmofr is promoted． (2) Correlation parameters of soil’riVer shape coe舔cient，nmofr coe伍cient cuⅣe sensitiVi妙had significant influence runo最in calibration and da