中国三次产业间劳动力资源合理配置问题理论研究与实证分析统计学专业论文.docxVIP

首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文 首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文 中国三次产业间劳动力资源合理配置问题理论研究与实证分析 Abstract China’S economy has stepped into a transition that known asthe New Normal, this is the background of the article．During this period，economic growth can’t maintain the high speed just like in the early 21n century,and the structural issues appears a lot in our industry．To promote industrial reforms and create more power of the growth，the supple-side reform became the target of economic development and the most important research topics today．Our research focuses on an important aspect of it：the labor’S misallocation．Labor is the determining factor and both it’S quantity and quality will greatly affect the output of the society．But most of the studies have not studied the structural problems in labor force that affect the production．The biggest innovation of this article is to make both quantitative and qualitative into our research．Through the establishment of the allocate model with adjustment data by migrant worker,and the estimate of the parameter,we can get the best numbers of labors grouped by the education in all industries，and the difierence between it and the actual numbers． Further,we use State-Space models and the Kalman filtering algorithm to calculate the TFP after achieving the rational allocation．From the measurement ofthe difference，we can find a lot of meaningful conclusions．At first the concentration of highly-educated labors in the third industry,leading to the lack of the labors in other two industries，and obviously it makes impair to the development of the industries．As for the low-education group，we can see that the major distortions occur in between the first and the second industry．Since 2008，the distortions were gradually reducing， but it may turn to the other side and it is worth noting that．There were already some signs of the ruraI labor force shortage and the excess in the second industries．To solve these problems，we believe that the Government should adopt