人民币汇率对中国进出口贸易..docxVIP

宁波大学成人教育学院本科毕业设计（论文） 1 2 编号 ： 　　　 本科毕业设计（论文） 题目：人民币汇率对中国进出口贸易 商品结构的影响分析 Analysis of the Influence of RMB Exchange Rate on the Import and Export Commodity Structure 专 业 国际经济与贸易 行政班级 学 号 姓　 名 完成日期  Ⅱ 摘 要 持续稳定的贸易发展是实现外部均衡和经济增长的重要保证。汇率作为一种重要的经济杠杆，是影响一个国家和地区对外贸易发展的重要因素之一。随着中国加入和对外开放水平的提高，人民币汇率变动对我国甚至世界贸易发展都会产生重大影响，因而越来越多地受到各方面的关注。本文研究的主要目标是探讨人民币实际汇率变动对对外贸易的影响，从而从贸易角度来进一步认识我国当一前的人民币升值。本文利用理论研究和实证研究相结合，定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法，首先对我国汇率波动形成机制的演变过程以及我国贸易结构的现状进行了理论分析，再收集数据，以弹性分析为基础建立回归方程的方法建模方法对我国进出口产品按照类别进行了实证分析，最后根据实证分析的结果指出了在人民币预期升值压力下我国转变贸易结构的的途径和政策建议。 关键词：实际有效汇率 汇率升值 进出口贸易结构  Ⅲ Analysis of the Influence of RMB Exchange Rate on the Import and Export Commodity Structure Abstract Sustained and stable development is to achieve external balance of trade and an important guarantee of economic growth. Exchange rate as an important economic lever that affect the development of a country and region an important factor in foreign trade. As the level of opening up Chinas accession to WTO and the improvement of the RMB exchange rate movements on trade development in China and even the world will have a significant impact, so more and more attention from all sides. The main objective of this study was to explore the real exchange rate movements on the impact of foreign trade, which from a trade point of，view to further understanding of our current appreciation of the renminbi.In this paper,theoretical and empirical bined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods, First of all, the formationmechanism of exchange rate fluctuations on our evolution and current situation of Chinas trade structure is analyzed theoretically, and then collect data to establish the basis of elastic analysis method of the regression equation modeling the import and export products to China to conduct an empirical analysi