大跨度桥梁施工期风险评估研究水工结构工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘要摘要 摘要 摘要 本文结合我国风险研究现状，根据大跨度桥梁风险评估的目标，从桥梁施 工风险评估模型设计、致险因子、风险估计等方面对大跨度桥梁施工风险进行 了研究，并取得以下主要成果： (1)定义了大跨度桥梁施工风险的概念，并在对大跨度桥梁主要施工方法 进行综述的基础上，结合事故致因理论，建立了大跨度桥梁施工风险发生机理 模型，设计了大跨度桥梁风险评估模式。 (2)对近年来国内大跨度桥梁施工风险典型灾害事故进行了统计分析，并 结合桥梁施工特点，建立了大跨度桥梁风险因素详表，根据德尔菲法和专家调 查法对风险因素进行分析筛选，初步得到了大跨度桥梁施工关键风险因素。 (3)建立了基于因子分析法的桥梁风险估计模型，并运用一个算例，阐述 了该模型在大跨度桥梁施工风险估计中的应用。 (4)将大跨度桥梁施工风险后果分为经济损失和非经济损失两大类，建立 了大跨度桥梁风险后果估计模型，同时引入“当量概念，给出了事故后果的 当量指标和当量估计方法，从而实现了对大跨度桥梁施工事故后果的量化估计。 (5)以实际桥梁工程为依托，应用本文理论成果对某桥施工风险进行了应 用研究。 关键词：大跨度桥梁，施工风险，致险因子，因子分析法，当量 Abstract_—————————————————————————————————————————————一 Abstract _—————————————————————————————————————————————一 Abstract Combining the recent research of risk analysis in China，according to the target of bridge risk evaluation，this thesis analyzes the construction risk of long span bridge from designing of bridge construction risk model，risk factor research and risk eStimation and risk comprehensive evaluation． And then applies the theory to the risk analysis of bridge construction． 1 Based on the analysis of long span bridge construction method，the thesis puts forward the definition of the risk of long span bridge construction，with a probe into the mechanism of the occurrence of risk and the establishment of the risk assessment pa_ttern of long span bridge construction· 2 A statistic of long span bridge construction accidents in china in recent years， risk fIactor detailed table of long span bridge in various stage ale listed，and then screening it．At last。risk factor system of long span bridge is established． 3 By using of factor analysis to evaluate long span bridge construction，the consequences estimation model of long span bridge is established．The model is divided into two categories：economic loss and non—economic loss．It put forward the accident consequential classification method for long span bridge construction on the basis of economic value measurement and introduces“equivalent”concept as a result· 4 Bv exploring the research achievements in long spa