火灾周期分析与战备执勤.docVIP

火灾周期分析与战备执勤 摘要 随着经济的飞速发展，火灾形势日益严峻，繁重而复杂的灭火救援任 务对消防部队提出了越来越高的要求。面对日益严峻的火灾形势，消防部 队如何科学安排战备执勤，合理分配部队的执勤力量，成为当前消防部队 研究的重要课题。本文分析了我国火灾的基木形势，探讨了我国公安消防 部队的日常战备执勤现状以及战备执勤存在问题。通过收集吉安市2000 年至2009年的火灾统计数据，采用SPSS社会统计软件对火灾发生起数、 火灾损失、火灾伤亡人数利用时间序列分析法进行季节分解，计算出周指 数、月指数，并结合吉安市的实际，分析产生火灾发生起数、火灾死亡人 数、火灾经济损失的周期性规律的原因。并利用火灾周期性规律对当前吉 安市消防支队的周工作进行合理安排，对年度常规活动进行科学的调整， 为开展部队日常管理、战备执勤工作、休假提供科学建议，缓解日常战备 执勤和灭火救援之间的矛盾，提高消防部队灭火救援工作的效率。 关键词：火灾统计；战备执勤；时间序列分析法；季节指数 Analysis on the Fire-cycle and Combat Readiness Abstract With the rapid development of the economy, fire situation has become increasingly serious. Fire brigade also is demanded much higher than before with the increase of all kinds fire-fighting and rescue missions. Under the increasingly severe fire situation, it is very important for fire brigade to research the topic on how to arrange the combat duty scientifically, and distribute fire fight troops on duty properly. In this paper, it states the basic status of Chinas fire, and analyzes the status of daily combat duty in fire brigade, as well as existent problems. Through collecting the fire statistical data between 2000 and 2009 in Ji，an, and breaking down the number of fires, fire loss, the number of casualties by SPSS software to calculate the weeks season index and monthly season index, combined with the actualities in Ji，an, the paper analyzes the reason of the cyclical law from the aspect of the number of fire occurred in a week, the number of fire occurred in a month and the number of deaths, fire economic losses. And use these laws to carry out the week-arrangement of Ji，an fire brigade, and scientifically regulate annual activities, as well as offer suggestions about daily administration, combat duty work and vacation recommendations, ease the conflicts between combat readiness and fire-fighting rescue to improve the fire fire-fighting rescue efficiency. Keywords: fire statistics; combating duty; time series analysis; season index TOC \o 1-5 \h \z 中文摘要 I 英文摘要 II 目录 III HYPE