·药事管理·我国中药产业安全评价实证分析.PDFVIP

中草药 Chinese Traditional and Herbal Drugs 第 47 卷 第 7 期 2016 年 4 月 ·1243 · ·药事管理· 我国中药产业安全评价实证分析 2 2 1* 张笑笑 ，汤少梁 ，殷爱玲 1. 南京中医药大学第三附属医院，江苏 南京 210001 2. 南京中医药大学经贸管理学院，江苏 南京 210023 摘 要：为了促进我国中药产业可持续发展。结合德尔菲法和产业安全理论建立中药产业安全评价指标体系。通过文献研究、 灰色预测法收集中药产业相关数据，利用熵权 TOPSIS 法对 2007—2013 年我国中药产业安全进行评价及实证分析。中药材 价格、中药产业进口对外依存度、中药产业研发费用及中药专利对中药产业安全影响大；我国中药产业 2007—2010 年不安 全，2011—2013 年基本安全。通过实证分析对中药产业安全进行评价，结论可靠，对中药产业可持续发展具有指导意义。 关键词：中药；安全评价；评价指标；产业安全；实证分析 中图分类号：R288 文献标志码：A 文章编号：0253 - 2670(2016)07 - 1243 - 08 DOI: 10.7501/j.issn.0253-2670.2016.07.030 Safety assessment and empirical analysis on Chinese materia medica industry in China 2 2 1 ZHANG Xiao-xiao , TANG Shao-liang , YIN Ai-ling 1. The Third Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing 210001, China 2. Management College of Economics and Trade, Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing 210023, China Abstract: To promote the sustainable development of Chinese materia medica (CMM) industry in our country. The safety evaluation index system of CMM industry was established by Delphi and industrial safety theory. Through literature research and gray prediction, the relevant data were collected and analyzed. The safety of CMM industry during 2007—2013 was evaluated and analyzed by entropy-weight and TOPSIS method. Prices of CMM, external dependence degree of import, CMM research and development costs and CMM patent have a great influence on the safety of CMM industry. Our CMM industry is not safe during 2007—2010, but basic safety during 2011—2013. Through the empirical analysis on the safety assessment in CMM industry, the conclusion is reliable and has guiding significance for the sustainable development o