2014年数学建模美赛A题——埃博拉病毒(作者：韩祖良_孙松磊_徐筱帆).pdfVIP

Team Control Number Foroffice useonly Foroffice useonly T1________________ 41961 F1________________ T2________________ F2________________ T3________________ F3________________ T4________________ ProblemChosen F4________________ A 2015MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM)SummarySheet Abstract:WiththecontinuousspreadofEbola,currently,theworldisfacinganu nprecedentedpublichealthcrisis.Byestablishingthemodels,westudiedthetransmi ssionofthedisease,drugsindemand,drugsmanufacturing,transportationlocation,tr ansportationsystemandotherkeyfactors,achievingthecorrespondedresults,whichi sbeneficialtothecontrollingoftheepidemic. Initially, for the transmission of the disease, we do simulation and the stability analysisofGuineatotheepidemicofthediseaseby establishingthe SI model.And the results is kindly fitted with the actual status. Then we do prediction on the development of the epidemic;As for the quantity of the drugs demand, we get the demand of the emergency medical resources by analyzing the changes of states of infected patients, we establish the requirement analysis model, introducing the concept of the isolation. Through the requirement analysis model above, taking Guinea as example,we firstly can get the minimum ofthe demand ofthe new drug with t asthe unit ofthe time. Thenwe calculatethe sumofthenew drug in Guinea from the beginning of the vaccine’s production to the epidemic is controlled. Eventually, we quantitatively calculate the sum of drugs demand by using the relationship between total number of infected and the number of the drugs demand fromthe outbreakstothe epidemicidcontrolled.Forthe speedofmanufacturingthe drugs and the vaccine, we utilize its relationship with the drug demand,with the