全球宏观经济展望.pdf

GLOBAL The Global Macro Outlook Beyond the cycle The cold bath: With the high-frequency manufacturing sector data rolling over, page 2, we believe it is time to focus back on two underlying trends: weak labour force growth in the leading economies and financial repression for decades . We forecast moderate trend growth and low real and nominal bond yields globally. The cycle rolls: we forecast 2018 and 2019 global real GDP growth (2.7% and 2.6% respectively) to slow versus 2017 (2.9%). Labour force growth: The US is better positioned than Europe, Japan and even China. Nonetheless, even assuming an aggressive rebound in the core working age (25-54 year old) participation rate, just ~120,000 jobs per month will be Key forecasts, changes this month necessary to keep US unemployment stable in 2017. This pace decelerates to 1) Tables for real GDP growth, CPI, interest just ~45 ,000K jobs per month in 2020. The aging demographic profile means rates, currencies and commodity prices underlying US labour force growth is likely to be just ~0.4% long-term. are on pages 9-11. Online access to our For the US, the above combined with recent trends in productivity growth of global macro foreca