供水管网漏损预测及健康度评价市政工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘要城市供水是城市的命脉，是保障人民生活、发展生产建设不可缺少的物质基 摘要 城市供水是城市的命脉，是保障人民生活、发展生产建设不可缺少的物质基 础，其己成为我国城市可持续性发展和建设的重要制约因素，而且直接关系到社 会的稳定和经济的发展。 给水管网漏损一直是我国供水企业的面临的一个很大的问题，随着水资源不 足的只益严重、制水成本的不断提高和能源紧张，城市给水管网漏损及其控制问 题己成为供水行业的一项重要课题。 本文根据收集的国内外的资料，对管网漏损的因素进行全面、细致的分析， 确定影响管道正常运行的各种因素，以及针对该影响因素能够采取的对策，给供 水企业进行漏损控制提供了技术性的建议，为提高检漏工作效率提供了科学依据 和理论支持。 笔者针对管网漏损各项预测指标的特点，建立了季节性指数平滑模型，灰色 理论模型和BP神经网络模型，并分别应用于漏损管件数的预测，管道漏损间隔 时间的预测，以及管道安全使用时问的预测，达到定量估计管网的漏损程度、漏 损频率和安全使用时间的目的。结果表明每个预测方法的预测精度均能控制在 1 O％以内，满足预测精度的要求。 供水管道运行的状态与管道自身的管材、压力、覆土厚度、所处道路等级、 管龄、温度等因素有关。综合分析各种实际情况，根据获得数据的可行性选取与 管网运行相关的因素利用灰色关联度法对管网健康度进行评价，由此确定管道维 护的优先次序，为供水企业提高了工作效率，节省大量人力物力财力。 关键词：季节性指数平滑模型；灰色理论模型；BP神经网络模型；灰色关联度 Abstractfor Abstract for Urban water supply is the lifeblood of the city．It is essential materlal basis has become the people，s 1ves and the development of production construction·It al so restrictive fators of the urban sustainable development and constructlon and directly related to the social stability and economic development· in our Pipeline leakage has been to the water pipes of water supply enterprises water country are facing a big problem， With the increasingly serious shoIrtage，water distribution restrictions and rising costs of nervous energy，the leakage of urban water network and its control has become an important topic in the 1ndustry· In this paper，based on information collected at home and abroad，alI the factors conducted the leakage of the pipeline had been comprehensively and detailed analYsls， and make certain the factors of affecting the normal operation of the pipellne，and for then give effective measures against those factors，we offer technical advice to watter supply company，and provide a scientific basis and theoreticaI suPPort improve the efficiency of the leakage detection· the Based on the forcast characteristics of the leakage of the pipeline，we and establishment of the seasonal exponential smoothing model，gray theOrY model BP neural network model，seperately applied to predict the number of pipe t