J.P.摩根- 亚洲经济展望.pdf

EM Asia 2H17 outlook : Back to the mean  1H17 growth in EM Asia surprised to the upside, driven by tech and commodity-related sectors  ofter China and G-3 capex, should see growth normalize in 2H17  Tech launches and semiconductor demand should benefit North Asian economies more than others  Stabilized capital outflows in China, reduced volatility opens policy space for PBOC to refocus on domestic issues  Despite recent cyclical lift, core inflation has been on a downtrend, suggesting limited domestic pricing power  Global financial conditions should remain supportive of EM Asia – balance of payments revised up, premised on relatively well tele- graphed G3 central bank reaction functions  Watching China’s financial plumbing and G3 capex JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch Economic Research Sin Beng Ong (65) 6882- 1623 EM Asia 2H17 outlook sinbeng.ong@ June 30, 2017 Plateauing growth, anticipating easy finan- steady fed funds normalization, underpinned by a US econ- cial conditions omy growing around a trend like 1.8%q/q, saar, a slow- moving normalization by the ECB and a deftly executed fi- As we mapped out the EM Asia narrative for 2017 last year, nancial deleveraging in China. we had penciled in an asymmetry in growth amid reflationary policies in the US – due to rising trade restrictions – that Growth expected to revert to the mean would lead to limited growth spillovers to the rest of the world (see “EM Asia 2017 Outlook: Feels more like 2015,” EM Asia gr