Class2 概述-2工程项目的风险背景.ppt

管理科学与工程专业适用 The Background of Risk and Uncertainty in construction Projects 双语课 工程项目风险管理与保险 Outline Introduction Risk and Decision Risk and Peoples Risk in Property Projects Risk and Contracts Risk Index Risk and Uncertainty Introduction- Why “Place your waterline low”? Analogy Risk Management is —— not predicting the future; —— a tool about understanding project and making better decision. Two attitude AGAP: All Goes According to Plan WHIF: What Happens If …… Risk Management Risk and Decisions What happens when groups make decision? When a group of people discuss a risk-taking problem, they usually arrive at a riskier solution than the average of their own previous individual solution. why? Intuition Based Decision Bias and Intuition Experts and Experience Rules of Thumb Making a Model Programmed Decisions Decisions that were repeatable and highly structured are programmed. These sort of decisions are more amenable to computer modeling. Some basic components of decision-making Objectives Choices The factors which must be taken into account Strategies (策略 ) Technology (技术) Attitude to risk of the decision-maker Preferences (short and long time) Recognition of bias Risk and Peoples in construction process Clients -Public Sector Central government building, roads, dams, bridges, sewers and other engineering works; Universities, higher education buildings; Hospitals； National industries； Local authorities;（地方政府和当局） Housing Private Sector Ownership Manufactures（制造商）, Retailers（零售商）, Service companies（服务公司）; Householders; Private infrastructure （基础设施）operators; Churches（教堂）, Charities（慈善机构）; Utility companies （公共事业公司）. Investment/Property dealing Banks; Pension Funds; Insurance company; Property Bonds; Individuals; Developers/House builders. Client’ needs have changed For example: More Flexible They allow design to be incomplete at the tender stage, and they allow clients to change t