长期风险与金融新秩序.pdf

Fundamental Long-Term Risks And the New Financial Order Prof. Robert J. Shiller Yale University Financial Modernization • Fundamental role of financial institutions – Manage risks – Maintain incentives • Effective financial institutions are found in all successful economies • Institutions must continually be adapted to take account of changing nature of risks, new technology China’s Spectacular Modernization Since 1990 • Established stock market • Issued shares to public • Established futures markets • Created Insurance industry • Personal credit/Mortgage Speculation • Human impulse towards gambling, must be directed towards constructive ends • Capitalism is a set of rules that redirects the human gambling urge in constructive directions • Capitalism is vulnerable to market- generated instabilities China’s Uncertainties • Will the spectacular economic growth continue? • As low wage advantage gradually disappears, will be harder to sustain growth • Possible disruptions of smooth-functioning economic system can slow growth. • Growth of 3% a year vs. 9% a year: means China overall catches up to advanced countries in 90 years instead of 30 years Economic Inequality • Economic incentives must allow for some chance of success—and of failure • Some inequality is necessary • Worldwide trend towards greater inequality is seen in China as well • China’s Gini coefficient has risen from 0.33 in 1980 to 0.46 in 2000, not just due to farmers’ incomes Important Reasons for Growing Chinese Inequality • Transition to market economy in China is not making everyone successful at once • New information technology appears to tend to concentrate wealth (in China and elsewhere) – Assembly l