我国房地产金融风险评估体系与风险.pdf

摘要 房地产金融作为经济学的一个分支，是一门应用性很强的学科，它主要研究 房地产经济领域内信贷资金运动及其规律性，有别于一般工商业资金的融通。房 地产金融在我国是一个新兴的学科，我国房地产金融业务的发展比较晚。房地产 金融是房地产业和金融业相结合的产业，它具备二者的特征，房地产业和金融业 都是风险极高的行业。随着我国住房制度的改革，近十年来，我国房地产金融业 得到突飞猛进的发展，所以房地产金融风险便随之而来。特别是2007 年美国爆发 的“次贷危机”进而引发的全球金融风暴，更是为我们评估和防范房地产金融风险敲 响了警钟。因此，根据我国当前的实际情况，构建一套评估房地产金融风险指标 体系和寻找防范房地产金融风险的新措施都非常必要，为保持房地产金融市场健 康发展，维护房地产市场稳定具有重要意义。 本文主要做了以下研究工作：①对房地产金融风险进行概述，房地产金融风 险是指金融机构为房地产业提供资金的筹集、融通、清算等金融服务活动中，由 于各种事先无法预料(即不确定) 因素的影响，使金融机构的实际收益与预期收益发 生背离，从而蒙受经济损失的可能性。②对长期以来国内外学者在这一领域所做 的主要研究进行综述，并总结了房地产金融风险的基本理论。③构建房地产金融 评估体系指标，这些指标主要有信用风险指标、房价风险指标(HAI)、利率风险指 标、法律法规风险定性分析等指标。为评估房地产金融风险提供了基本的数值依 据。④提出防范房地产金融风险的建议，这些建议主要有建立社会征信体系、加 强金融监管和金融创新、推行网络联保贷款模式、健全房地产信贷法律法规等建 议。为了规避房地产金融风险要把风险评估和防范措施结合起来，这样才能达到 规避风险，保持房地产金融业健康、持续发展的局面。 关键词：房地产金融，金融监管，信用风险，回归分析ABSTRACT Real estate finance as a branch of economics is the application of a strong subject, is the main research areas of real estate economy and regularity of movement of credit nds,which is different from the general funds of the finance industry and commerce. al estate finance in China is an emerging discipline,so real estate finance business in ina relatively late development.Real estate finance is a combination of real estate d financial services,which has characteristics of extremely high-risk industries that is m real estate and financial services industry.As Chinas housing system reform,over e past decade,Chinas real estate finance industry has been rapid development,so the k of real estate finance is followed.In particular the United States has been the tbreak of thesub-loan crisiswhich triggered the global financial turmoil in 2007,it for us to assess and guard against financial risks of real estate wake-up call.Thus,in der to maintain the healthy development of financial markets,real estate market to aintain stability,it is very necessary to find real estate to prevent financial risks of new easures and to construct a set of indicators to assess the risk of real estat