基于财务风险预警模型的上市公司退市制度探讨统计学专业论文.docxVIP

I I 摘 要 摘 要 随着我国证券市场的快速发展，证券法逐步确立，与此同时关于股票暂停上市的相 关制度条例也在不断的完善，但在实际操作过程中并没有太多存在上市风险的公司被强 制退市，而是很多情况下，通过一段时间企业内部的“积极经营”又重新回到了正常状 态股票的行列，最终导致真正被实施退市的公司很少。上市公司退市制度在近些年来一 直倍受关注，如何建立定性和定量的财务风险评价体系是很多学者一直在研究的问题。 本文主要通过上市公司的财务指标数据，运用多元统计学中的 Logistic 回归方法对 ST 股票以及配对的非 ST 股票进行建模，先确定哪些因素对于评价上市公司的财务风险有 较明显的影响，再把研究样本连续五年的季度财务数据进行计算得到风险 P 值的时间序 列，最后基于 P 值的时间序列进行对比研究。最后发现，大部上市公司被警示的滞后时 间是不一样的，而且资产规模较大的公司被实施 ST 的滞后时间相对较长，规模较小的 公司相对较短，另外，不同资产规模的上市公司具有不同的风险承受能力。根据以上得 出的结论，本文为我国上市公司退市制度考核方法的进一步完善提供了有价值的参考。 关键字 上市公司退市制度 ST 公司 财务风险 Logistic 模型 资产规模 II II Abstract Abstract With the rapid development of Chinas securities market, securities law constantly progress, at the same time, stock suspend relevant regulations on city also at continuously perfect, but in fact there is few companies were forced to withdraw from the market but in many cases, through a period of internal active operation to return to the normal state of the ranks of stocks, and the real meaning can be rarely delisted company. The delisting system of listing Corporation has been paid much attention in the recent years，many scholars have been considered qualitative and quantitative criteria, and discussed how to establish a more conducive to investors and market listing Corporation risk assessment method. The study found that, most of the listing Corporation is the lag time warning is not the same, and there is a characteristic of the scale of the companys assets in large lag time is relatively long, smaller companies lag time is relatively short, in addition, different asset size of the listing Corporation have different risk tolerance. Finally according to the above conclusion, assessment method of the delisting institution of listing Corporation provides reference from another Keywords The delisting system of listing corporation ST company Financial risk Logistic model Asset size PAGE PAGE IV 目 录 目 录 第 1 章 导 论 1 1.1 选题的目的和意义 1 1.1.1 研究背景 1 1.1.2 选题目的 2 1.1.3 研究意义 3 1.2 国内外相关研究综述 3 1.2.1 关于退市制度的研究现状 3 1.2.2