B08FDP项目总结报告提纲-WMO.doc

PAGE PAGE 1 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMSOPAG on DPFS Expert Team on Ensemble Prediction Systems (eT-EPS) Exeter, CBS-DPFS/ET-EPS/Doc. 6.1(5) (30.IX.2009) _______ Agenda item : 6 ENGLISH ONLY B08RDP EPS in Severe Weather Forecasting for China (Submitted by Jing Chen, Guo Deng, Jiangdong Gong, Jiangkai Hu Dr. Summary and purpose of document The paper gives an overview of B08RDP REPS in Chinese Meteorological Administration and its application in Severe Weather Forecasting in Beijing 2008 Olympic Game. 1. Introduction To improve short-range weather forecasts of high-impact weather phenomena with high-resolution ensemble prediction methods in support of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. NMC developed mesoscale ensemble prediction system (MEPS) as a participant of Beijing 2008 Olympics Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction Research and Development Project (B08RDP). The MEPS at NMC took advantage of achievements at high resolution deterministic mesoscale prediction model, data assimilation system as well as experiences from development of global ensemble prediction system at NMC, and set up a whole framework of regional ensemble system controlled by supervisor Monitor scheduler (SMS). The MEPS has become operational ever since 2006, and the system was compared with control deterministic forecasts as well as all the other 5 RDP participants in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Results showed that NMC MEPS could describe the uncertainties of initial conditions and characters of mesoscale model error development, and reflect peculiar topography of China area and effect of distribution of observations on error growth. Therefore, the MEPS could get a better predictions comparing with control run. However, it was found that spread of MEPS was small compared with observations and forecast errors, the forecasting error for control run was obvious, and mesoscale ensemble products were still not good enough for site- and time-specific forecasts, but it demonstr