江苏省地方财政可持续性问题研究-财政学专业论文.docxVIP

II II ABSTRACT Tax reform in 1994 did not coordinate the fiscal relationship between the central and local governments essentially, and the system whereby the financial resources of the central and local governments commensurate with their respective responsibilities has not been established, which lead to a policy gap between local governments financial revenue and expenditure. In order to compensate the policy gap between financial revenue and expenditure, most of the local governments get into debt in varying degrees, despite our current budget law prohibited local government deficits and borrowing debt. Fiscal sustainability studied on the solvency of the government externally, but it was mainly on macroeconomic impact of government revenue and expenditure essentially, due to the debt was related to revenue and expenditure of local government. Thus, we analysis the root causes of local fiscal sustainability in institutional view firstly: under the guidance of the public choice theory, local government officials were driven by maximizing the budget expansion expenses blindly, rent-seeking corruption, which led to financial expenditure structure unreasonable and unsustainable; Currently, unsound financial relationship between central and local government made local government depend on land grant income and other non-tax revenue greatly, but non-tax revenue was greatly influenced by the policy, are not belonging to sustainable source of income. Secondly, based on the mathematical models proposed by Quintos (1995) and Maorong,Zhou and Chuanpeng,Luo(2007), we introduce the central transfer payments factor and formulate a financially sustainable co-integration test model: Based on neoclassical solvency law, the public debt was tested by the No-Ponzi game condition, and then to examined the government borrowing behavior in the time path in line with the “inter-temporal budget constraint” conditions, if the government fiscal behavior satisfied the condition , then it w