节能减排背景下电力需求预测方法的研究-电力系统及其自动化专业论文.docxVIP

上海交通大学硕士学位论文ABS 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 ABSTRACT 第 第 I 页 Methods of Electric Load Forecasting based on Energy-saving and Emission Reduction ABSTRACT In recent years, the economics in China has been growing rapidly; great achievements have been made in many kinds of constructions to the country. But at the same time the contradiction between economic development and environment has become acuter and the public’s reactions to the environmental problems have been more and more strongly. Right now ESAER (Energy Saving and Emission Reduction) has actually become the key task of the national economic works, and the power industry will hold the prominent position in the ESAER. At present the major measures executing ESAER in power industry are focusing mainly on the generation-side. However, ESAER will bring great impact on all sides of electric industry with no doubt. So the researches of load forecasting methods in the context of ESAER have great practical significance for network planning, operation and other aspects of power system. On the basic of full knowledge of ESAER in China and East China, after the inspiration are gained from the developing history of the power industry of Japan, the new features of power consumption in East 第 第 II 页 China(EC) in the context of ESAER are analyzed. Meanwhile, in order to consider the impact of ESAER directly in the power consumption forecasting model, learning form the economic Solow model, the slow power consumption forecasting Solow model is created, in which GDP of EC is used to represent the EC’s economic development, the industrial portion of total GDP in EC and power intensity are used to represent the implementation of ESAER in EC. Then the total power consumption growth in EC is broken down into the growth caused by economic development, the growth caused by industrial structural adjustment and as well as the growth caused by the implementation of ESAER. After each part of power consumption is forecasted, the