金融条件指数测算及货币政策操作框架分析-政治经济学专业论文.docxVIP

II II Abstract Since the 1970s, the information technology, financial innovation, deregulation and financial globalization gain the development to major industrial countries to develop capital markets, the traditional monetary policy objectives and operating system is faced with more and more challenges. The past 20 years last century, while central banks in controlling inflation in goods and services has made great achievements, but the expansion of asset prices become hard problem. Some economists had begun to believe that in addition to the maintenance of price stability and keep output grow; asset prices also should be considered and recommended to establish the financial conditions index (FCI) to reflect a more comprehensive future inflation and economic growth. With the development of Chinas stock market in recent years, the financial system and financial structure is being optimized, the ratio of currency-related or financial-related rate increase have shown a good momentum, reaching the United States the level in 1980s, which create good atmosphere for asset prices to impact macroeconomic conditions. In the field of micro-markets, with the improvement of peoples income, savings and capital markets to enhance the development of residents in securities held in the form of increasing the proportion of financial assets, increasing the tendency of income to raise capital. At the same time, with the development of real estate, the residents to invest in housing and shops have also increased rapidly. There is no doubt that the central bank in monetary policy has been brought tremendous challenges in practice. In view of this, we use the FCI benchmark mentioned by Goodhart and Hofmann in this paper, through structural VAR model estimates the impulse response function of the expansion of Chinas financial conditions index. We find that FCI can be as leading indicators of inflation. Meanwhile, we incorporated FCI index into the forward-looking monetary policy reaction