金融风险分析、预警与防范对策研究-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 (80年代以来，金融自由化和全球一体化加剧了金融风险。近年来我国金融 发展态势也不容乐观。因此，全面系统地研究与把握金融风险类型、特点、性质 及成因，采取对策来控制和防范金融风险已成为历史的必然。本文旨在对金融风 险进行分析、预警并提出防范对策，—≯一一 全文共分6章。 第l章，阐明金融风险的内涵、特征、层次、表现及我国金融风险面临的隐 患和防范、化解金融风险的紧迫性。 第2章，从我国转轨时期这一特殊国情出发，客观地分析金融风险的生成因 素，确定金融风险源。 第3章，结合我国现实，建构了度量、监测金融风险的指标体系，并对构建 金融风险预警系统进行研究。 第4章，依据《巴塞尔协议》的有关规定，通过金融企业流动性比率和资本 充足率等指标对甲乙两个金融企业的金融风险进行具体的量化实证分析。白管理 层提供金融企业的风险测度结果，以便于对各类金融企业进行分类指导管理，有 针对性地防范和化解金融风险。卜矿一一 第5章，为进一步防范金融风险，研究应用层次分析法对商业银行资产负债 比例进行综合评价的程序及模型，并用该程序、模型对3家银行进行了实际分析。 第6章，从完善金融运行环境，制约金融风险生成内、外部因素的目的出发， 探索符合我国国情的防范金融风险的方法和对策。 关键词： 金融风险 风险预警系统 风险度 层次分析法 综合评价 AbstractFinancial Abstract Financial liberalization and global integration have been aggravating financial risk since the eighties of 20 century．Recently,our national financial growing tendency is not sanguine．So，it has been inevitable to systematically research and grasp financial risk types、features、natures and causes offormation，take measures to control and defend financial risk．This thesis analyses the financial risk，gives its admonition and puts forward defending strategy． The thesis concludes six chapters． The first chapter clarifies financial risk’S connotations、features、levels、 manifestations，the hidden troubles our national financial risk faced，the urgency of defending and abating financial risk． The second chapter objectively analyses the financial risk’S formatting causes and defines the source of financial risk in the transformating period of our country． The“rd chapter。establishes index systems of measuring and supervising financial risk according to our national reality，and researches the construction of financial risk alarming system． The fourth chapter specifically analyses the financial risk in A and B financial business using quantitative measures such as circulating ratios and capital sufficiency ratios offinancial business，according tO‘Basel agreement”．It provides administrative levels with the results of measuring risk in financial business，SO that they can guide and manage various