南京房地产价格指数预测分析解析资料.docVIP

南京财经大学本科毕业论文（设计） PAGE PAGE 2 目 录 中文摘要……………………………………………………………1 英文摘要………………………………………………………………1 1引言…………………………………………………………………….2 2南京房地产价格指数的预测与相关分析…………………………… 2 2.1南京的房屋销售价格指数预测……………………………………..3 2.2南京与全国房屋销售价格指数的相关性分析……………………..7 2.3南京居民家庭可支配收入与南京房屋销售价格指数的相关性分析…………………………………………………………………………9 2.4土地交易价格指数和房屋销售价格指数的相关性分析………….11 2.5房屋租凭价格指数和房屋销售价格指数的相关性分析………….12 3 从房地产市场供求关系来推测房价走势……………………………15 4 调控政策及建议………………………………………………………16 参考文献………………………………………………………………….18 附录……………………………………………………………………….19 致谢……………………………………………………………………….21 南京房地产价格指数预测分析 摘要:近几年来,随着房地产价格持续上涨，整个社会对于房地产市场的发展都非常关注,尤其是关注房地产市场的价格。众所周知,改革开放之后,中国的房地产市场无论制度还是规模都发生了巨大的变化,南京房地产市场的价格水平也一路走高。然而,现在房地产的价格有没有完全反映市场的真实供求。本文主要以南京市为例,通过近年来该市的各类房地产价格指数统计数据作预测分析，并结合南京居民家庭可支配收入情况和南京房屋销售价格指数做相关分析以及地价对房价的相关性影响,对近几年南京房地产市场的发展做一分析,由此提出一些相关调控政策建议，并研究了南京今后的房地产走势。 关键词:房屋销售价格指数，人均可支配收入，房屋租凭价格指数 Abstract：Recently, the whole society pays more attention to the development of the real estate market, especially to the price of premises, as the price of the real estate price rises continuously, .As we all know, since the opening and reform, great changes has been taken place in both system and scale of the real estate market, with the rising of the market price of Nanjing. However, many people thought that the price didn’t reflect the real supply and demand of the market. This paper mainly uses Nanjing as an example, to predict and analysis the various statistics of real estate price index in recent years, and do the correlation analysis by combining the condition of Nanjing households’ disposable income with the housing sales price index of Nanjing, and analyze the correlation impacts between land prices and housing prices. Then this paper will analyze the development of the real estate market in recent years. From the data, some control policy advice will be given, and this paper has researched the future trend of the Nanjing real estate. Keywords：Housing sales price index，Per capita disposable income，Housing lease price index 1．引言 众所周