MCMICM数学建模优秀论文.pdf

The Coining Oil Crisis 127 The Coming Oil Crisis Wei Deling Chen Jie Xu Hui East China University of Science and Technology Shanghai City, China Advisor: Ni Zhongxin Summary We model depletion of oil, a typical vital nonrenewable resource. Based on the theory of supply and demand, we establish a differential equation sys- tem that includes demand, supply, and price, and derive explicit formulas for the three variables. We modify the model to reflect exponetially increasing worldwide oil demand. We fit the modified model to worldwide oil demand data 1970-2003. We conclude that all oil will be used up in 2032 without countermeasures. We then take economic, demographic, political, and environmental factors into account. To meet the needs of people today without compromising those of future generations, we establish a criterion of rational oil allocation between genera- tions and model optimal oil allocation tunder this criterion, with an illustration. We provide a strategy for oil exploitation to reduce the possibility of disas- ters in the short term. Finally, according to marginal utility replacement rules, we study the trade- offbetween oil and its alternatives. Since our model is based on demand-supply theory and the intrinsic law of nonrenewable resources, it can be applied to general nonrenewable resources. Task 1: Modeling the Depletion of Oil Under the following assumptions, no restriction is made to protect oil, so it will be exhausted in the fastest way. The UMAP Journal26 (2) (2005) 127-146. ©Copyright2005 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commerci