休耕之直接补贴对我国稻农生产决策之影响TheImpactofSetAside.PDF

休耕之直接補貼對我國稻農生產決策之影響 The Impact of Set Aside Program on Rice Farmers’ Production Decision in Taiwan 計劃編號:NSC 88-2415-H-002-026- 執行期限:民國87 年8 月1 日至88 年7 月31 日 主持人:陳郁蕙 國立台灣大學農業經濟研究所 主持人電子郵件帳號:yhc@ccms.ntu.edu.tw 摘要 the so called supply-demand balance. Under 「水旱田利用調整計劃」中之休耕補 the set-aside policy, rice growers will get the set-aside premium for each unit of land idled. 貼措施自1998 年開始實施，施行至今為時 The intriguing questions are how to decide 尚短，雖然農政單位已有一套休耕補貼之 the optimal level of set-aside premium? How 標準 ，但此標準如何制訂？何種休耕補貼 much the government should pay to achieve 水準才算合理？如何訂定適當之休耕補貼 the policy goal? The objective of this 水準才能使稻農生產決策與政府 「供需平 research is to develop a theoretical model to 衡」之目標相配合？這一系列之問題實有 decide the optimal level of set-aside premium 待審慎思考 。而本文之主要目的即在於建 that will provide enough incentive for 立一套以經濟理論為基礎之模型 ，以探討 farmers to idle part of their land and achieve the policy goal in the domestic rice industry. 上述問題 。在假設農民可對價格與單位面 The research steps are as follows. First, the 積產量進行預期及預期價格與預期單位面 current set aside policy has been taken into 積產量間存有線性關係之假設下 ，利用二 account in the rice farmer’s profit function. 元常態分配可推導出在價格與生產風險 Second, the theoretical model for the set- 下 ，農民單位面積收益之機率密度函數。 aside policy has been developed under the 而本文亦放寬Fraser(1993)之單位面積生產 assumption of expected utility maximization. 成本為常數之假設 ，令單位面積生產成本 Third, a numerical method was employed to 與單位面積產量具相關性 ，再以二階泰勒 evaluate the model followed by some