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17 5 Vo.l 17, No. 5
2008 10 JOURNAL OF NATURAL D ISASTERS O ct. , 2008
: 2008)
张明媛, 袁永博, 周 晶
( , 116085)
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Analysis and m od eling of urban relative disasterbearing capacity
ZHANG M ingyuan, YUAN Y ongbo, ZHOU Jing
( 1. School ofC ivil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University ofT echnology, Dalian 116085, China)
Abs tract: It is a popu lar but d ifficu lt problem that how to estmi ate urban integrated disasterbearing capacity.
Based on the integrativemodel of sustainable developm ent estmi ation, the model of relative d isasterbearing capaci
ty of urban system is established wh ich provides a new th inking to solve the problem above. Through the partition of
urban comp lex function system into society subsystem, economy subsystem and environment subsystem and their
interaction analysis, the subsystem s factors wh ich are mi portant to the d isasterbearing capacity are found and
then put them into themodel in the form of d isasterbearing capacity indexes such as society safety index, econom ic
basic index, environm ent index and infrastructure index after integration and quantization. It is found that the
quantization m ethod and w eight determ ination are mi portant to the reasonable choice of value of d isaster relative
bearing capacity, so tak ing the econom ic basic index as an examp le, it is suggested that the coord ination coefficient
product cou ld be used instead of the original formula value to keep it in a reasonable ranges.
K ey words: integrated d isaster bearing capacity; sustainable developmen;t function system; disaster bearing capac
ity index
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