重购轻租还是租售并重居住方式对农民工举家-经济发展研究中心.PDF

重购轻租还是租售并重：居住方式对农民工举家迁移影响的实证 陈忠斌 黄露露① 摘要：本文基于CHIP(2002, 2007, 2008)和CLDS2014 的农民工调查数据，采用统计描述和Probit 回归分析考察了农民工的居住方式对举家迁移决策的影响及其动态变化过程。实证结果表明， 自购房和独立租赁住房的农民工最有可能实现举家迁移，居住在工厂宿舍和建筑工地的农民 工难以实现举家迁移。大专及以上文化程度的农民工最有可能实现举家迁移。在工业部门就 业的农民工难以实现举家迁移。家中有老人需要赡养的农民工难以实现举家迁移。考虑到城 市房价的飙涨，文章认为，农民工实现举家迁移成为城市市民的路径将主要取决于吸纳农民 工安居的城市公租房制度。 关键词：外出农民工；居住方式；举家迁移；城市化 Effects of Housing pattern on family-migration behavior of rural-to-urban workers Zhongbin CHEN Lulu HUANG Abstract:Based on the survey data of rural-to-urban workers in CHIP2002, CHIP2007 ，CHIP2008 and CLDS2014, this paper adopts statistical description and Probit regression method to study the impacts of the rural-to-urban workers housing pattern on their family-migration decision. The empirical results show that it is more easy to achieve family migration for the rural-to-urban workers who have bought a flat/apartment in city or rented an apartment; it is very hard to realize family migration for the rural-to-urban workers living in factory dormitories or building sites; it is more likely to achieve family migration for the rural-to-urban workers who have graduated from the junior ①感谢国家自然科学基金项目《具有人口年龄结构的经济增长模型与仿真》(项目编、教育部人文 社会科学重点研究基地武汉大学经济发展研究中心自主项目《房地产业发展趋势及其对中国经济发展的影响 研究》对本文的资助。 陈忠斌，武汉大学经济发展研究中心，武汉大学经济与管理学院（邮编430072 ），副教授，博士，研究领域 为移民经济发展、人力资源、消费与经济增长。电子邮箱：zbchen@，电话 黄露露，武汉大学经济与管理学院，西方经济学专业2014级硕士研究生。电子邮箱：1209912442@. college and above; it is very difficult to accomplish the goal of family migration for the rural-to-urban workers who have worked in factories, or have to raise and take care the elderly people. Based on the soaring housing price in urban areas, this paper argues that family-migration path for the most of rural-to-urban workers are mainly dependent on the establi