BCGS VALUE MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AN OVERVIEW FOR MBA STUDENTSyoungyu优质教材.pptVIP

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2019-03-30 发布于天津
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BCGS VALUE MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AN OVERVIEW FOR MBA STUDENTSyoungyu优质教材.ppt

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BCGS VALUE MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AN OVERVIEW FOR MBA STUDENTSyoungyu优质教材.ppt

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 2 2 2 17 17 18 CFROI’S NORMALLY EXCEEDTHE MARKET DERIVED DISCOUNT RATES1996 DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE CFROI’s Market Derived Discount Rates Differences Politics/Policies Change CFROI’S NORMALLY EXCEEDTHE MARKET DERIVED DISCOUNT RATES Even though many economists believe that all returns must converge, in a healthy capitalist economy, CFROI’s on hard assets will exceed investor required returns on financial assets most of the time, because: Continuous new entrepreneurial innovations prevent CFROI’s from converging completely to promised financial returns (imperfect arbitrage) and Entrepreneurs must be rewarded with greater returns to assume the greater dispersion and higher risk of loss associated with CFROI’s on illiquid hard assets compared to financial returns on marketable, liquid financial assets Producer Price Index % Change GNP/GDP Deflator % Change Inflationary Expectations 0.0% Base Rate 1950-1980 2.6% Base Rate 1981-1996 Inflationary Expectations based on 0-2.6 base rates follow actual inflation more closely, but avoid the sharp volatility of actual PPI and GNP/GDP annual inflation. 2.48 Note: the base rate is defined as the after-investor tax, after inflation required return on Government long term bonds. BCG CALCULATES INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS BY SUBTRACTING TAX PREMIUMS AND A BASE RATE FROM LONG TERM GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDSUSA - 1950-1997 MARKET DERIVED NOMINAL EQUITY RATES COME FROM MARKET DERIVED REAL EQUITY RATES PLUS THE COMPOUNDED EFFECT OF INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS Market Derived Nominal Equity Rate 9.17 6.53 2.48 Market Derived Real Equity Rate Inflationary Expectations THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM HAS DECLINED TO THE 2-3% RANGE Risk Premium Differences Market Derived Nominal Equity Rate Nominal Long Term Government Bond Rate 2.66 RISK CONCEPTS AND MEASUREMENT CAPM Market Derived Investors seek to avoid price volatility relative to the market. Investors seek to avoid losses from unanticipated major events. Major Events