基于上下游企业不合作信息博弈的供应链应急协调-物流工程专业论文.docxVIP

上海交通大学硕士学位论文 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 - - I - 基于上下游企业不合作 信息博弈的供应链应急协调 摘 要 近年来，供应链层次结构越来越复杂，所跨地域越来越广泛，为 了降低成本，很多企业都强调精益制造、实时控制或者零库存，但这 些技术的应用也减弱了企业对风险的抵御能力。当突发事件发生时， 企业的正常业务被迫中断，市场份额下降，甚至面临破产倒闭。但是 也有些企业在遭受同样的突发事件时，能够迅速做出响应，采取措施 将损失尽可能降低，如果处理得当的话，企业还可以在处理突发事件 的过程中提高自身的市场占有率。因此，如何制定有效的供应链应急 策略对于企业有十分重要的实际意义。 本文以供应系统的突发事件为研究对象，确定制造商作为供应链 中的核心企业，引进紧急系数的概念，实现突发事件下对供应品的分 类管理，在此基础上以制造商获得供应商告知实情，防止劣质产品供 应以及期望收益的最大化为准则，对供需双方冲突进行博弈分析，从 时间、收益等多个维度刻画突发事件可能造成的危害和可挽救度，建 - - II - 立不同等级供应品的供应系统动态应急模型，并分多阶段对突发事件 进行动态协调，促进突发事件的快速恢复。最后通过某汽车工厂的实 际案例，分析供应商和制造商在突然事件发生之后的期望收益，给出 不同等级供应品的应急预案流程，在验证模型准确性的同时对流程优 化以及日常运营管理提出相应的建议。 关键词：突发事件，供应品分类，信息博弈，实证分析 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 上海交通大学硕士学位论文 - - PAGE IV - THE DISRUPTION COORDINATION ANALYSIS IN SUPPLY CHAIN BETWEEN UP AND DOWN STREAM ENTERPRISES BASED ON ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION ABSTRACT Recently, the structure of the whole supply chain is more and more complicated, and the area it related to is more and more wide. So in order to reduce cost, a lot of enterprises emphasize lean manufacturing, real-time control or a theory that is called zero inventory, but the application can also weaken the ability to resist risk. As soon as emergencies occur, routine business will be interrupted, market share will decline, even the enterprise will be in the face of bankruptcy. Meanwhile, some companies can have a quick response, take measures to minimize the losses after suffering from the same incident. Compared the two different results, it is obvious that how to develop effective strategy for the supply chain disruption has an important significance for the company. After the analysis of reality, research direction has been determined. As the hypothesis that manufacturer is the core enterprise in the supply chain disruption research, emergency degree should be introduced for supplies classify management. Moreover, it is important for manufacturer to keep on getting the actual conditions from supplier, and avoid the inferior products coming into the whole supply chain. Because