【硕博论文】【运筹学与控制论】电力负荷预测中的数学方法及应用研究.docxVIP

摘要 负荷预测是电力系统的重要工作之一,准确的负荷预测是提高电力系统经济 效益和社会效益的保证。本文致力子电力负荷预测模型研究f在对现有的预测方 法进行深入的学习后，提出了一种新的组合预測模型，即基于最大信息压缩指标 的组合预测模型9 全文分为四章，第一章概述了电力系统负荷预测的意义、研究内容、负荷预 渕的特点、研究现状。 第二章对负荷预测中的计量经济模型、逐步回归模型以及模糊聚类预测模 型。进行了深入的研究。 第三章从信息论的角度对预测给出了一种新的解析:预测是人们从预测对象 的已有信息中提取出能预示未来的信息:并首次引用最大信息压缩指标来度量单 个预测模型所产生的信息损失。在对各个预测模型的信息损失量进行模糊评判 后，賦予各个预测模型相应的权重，对信息损失大的预测模型陚予较小的权重， 否则，陚予较大的权重，从而建立一个新的组合预测模型，即基于最大信息压缩 指标的组合预测模型。并应用新建立的组合预测模型对华东地区的用电量进行中 长期预测。并对预测误差进行比较分析。试验结果表明：基于最大信息压缩指标 的组合预测模型优于其中的任意一个预测模型，显示其较好的预测性能。 第四章为结束语，总结了论文的工作和成果，并提出了进一步研究的方向。 关鏟词：电力负荷预测，组合预测模型，最大信息压缩指标，误差指标 ABSTRACT Load forecast is one of the important tasks of the electric system, the accurate ones are the assurances which can elevate the benefits of the electric system economy and the society. This paper focuses on the research of the electric load forecast model, and advances a new combination forecast model which is based on the Maximal information compression index after studying the existent forecast method deeply. This paper is divided into four chapters, the first part generalizes the significances of the research on Change forecast in the electric system, the characteristics and the research actualities of the charge forecast electric system. The second chapter researches on econometric model、stepwise regression model and fuzzy clustering algorithm model deeply. The third chapter presents a new explanation of prediction from the view point of information theory, that is, prediction is to extract information which c如 foretell the future from the existent information of the forecast object, and Maximal information compression index is introduced to measure tiie loss of information produced by single prediction model for the first time. After fuzzy evaluation of the loss of information, each prediction model is assigned a corresponding weight coefficient on the principle that tiie less the loss of information, the bigger the weight coefficient. In this way, we establish a new combination forecast model, which is base