广东省地方政府性债务风险研究-会计专业论文.docxVIP

暨南 暨南大学 MPAcc 学位论文：广东省地方政府性债务风险研究 I I 摘 要 据审计署披露的数据显示，截至 2013 年 6 月，全国地方政府负有偿还责任的债务余 额达到 105789 亿元，较 2010 年底的 67109 亿元增长了 57.67%。随着债务规模飞速增长， 债务风险不断扩大。因此，如何合理评估和有效防范地方政府性债务风险，已成为当前实 务界与学术界共同探讨的重大课题。 本文采用规范研究的方法，从资产负债的角度评估广东省地方政府性债务风险。首先， 从地方政府性债务的概念出发，结合国内外实务界的债务统计口径和学术界学者的研究成 果，对本文所指的地方政府性债务范围做出界定。在分析国内外对政府性债务风险评估方 法的基础上，建立本文所采用的债务风险评估体系；然后，分别从债务规模、债务结构以 及债务资金使用管理情况分析广东省地方政府性债务的现状，发现广东省地方政府性债务 具有基数大、或有债务比重高、对土地出让收入依赖性强等特点；接着，根据前文建立的 债务风险评估体系，通过资产负债率、债务负担率、财政负担率、偿债率、逾期债务率和 土地财政负担率 6 项指标测度和评价债务风险，结果表明广东省地方政府性债务短期内风 险可控，但需高度警惕流动性风险；最后，针对上述债务风险特点和风险提示，分别从资 产管理和债务管理的角度提出一系列防范建议。 关键词：地方政府性债务，债务风险，风险评估 II II ABSTRACT As of June 2013, the national pay responsibility of local government debt balance reached 10.5789 trillion Yuan, an increase of 57.67% from the 6.7109 trillion Yuan compared with the end of 2010. Also, the debt risk keeps rising, with the rapid growth of debt. Therefore, how to reasonably assess and effectively guard against local government debt risk, has become a major issue of the current practice and academia to discuss. This article adopts the standardized methods to assess the Guangdong local government debt risk from the perspective of assets and liabilities.First of all, to define the scope of the local government debt, I start from the concept of local government debt, and combined with domestic external debt statistics caliber and academic research during this article.Then, respectively, from the size of the debt, the debt structure and debt funds and management of Guangdong Province in local government debt situation, I found that local government debt in Guangdong province has a large base, or have a high proportion of debt and the characteristics of land transfer income dependence.Then, based on a risk assessment of debt previously established by the asset-liability ratio, the debt burden rate, the rate of the financial burden, debt service coverage ratio of overdue debt and financial burden rate of land six indicators to measure and evaluate the