中国财产保险需求影响因素分析.docVIP

中国财产保险需求的影响因素分析 摘要 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 2 摘 要 中国于1980年恢复国内保险业务以来保险业取得了长足发展，但近几年出现发展滞缓现象，并且我国财产保险业密度与深度和发达国家相比有较大差异，财产保险需求有待提高。 本文利用我国2000-2014年的时间序列数据，对影响财产保险需求的主要因素进行实证分析，引入教育经费支出、保险机构个数、国内生产总值、全社会固定资产投资、交通事故发生数、财产保险费、城镇居民人均可支配收入指数七个解释变量，运用多元回归方法建立回归模型，进行量化分析。但发现各解释变量之间存在较强复共线性，再利用岭回归对多元回归模型进行修正。 结果表明：教育经费支出、国内生产总值（GDP）、全社会固定资产投资、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入指数四个解释变量被成功引入模型，对中国财产保险收入具有显著影响;保险市场供给、财产保险费、交通事故发生数未被成功引入模型,对中国财产保险收入影响不显著。 最后根据本文建模结果对中国财产保险市场发展提出了相关建议。 关键词：财产保险需求,多元线性回归,岭回归 Abstract PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 2 Abstract Great progress has been made since the domestic insurance business recovery in 1980, but development lagging phenomenon occurring in recent years. And compared with the developed countries, our country property insurance’s density and depth needs to be improved. Using data of 2000-2014 in our country, discusses the main factors influencing the property insurance demand: educational disbursed, supplying factors of insurance market, gross domestic product (GDP), fixed assets investment , the number of traffic accidents, the price of property insurance，urban per capital disposable income index. Adopting to ridge regression method to establish the regression model, and then analysis property insurance demand’ influence factors in China.But found the explained variables has strong complex col-linearity , use ridge regression to modify multiple regression model. The results show that educational disbursed, gross domestic product (GDP), fixed assets investment ，urban per capital disposable income index and number of car has significant positive effect on property insurance demand in China. Supplying factors of insurance market，the number of traffic accidents and the price of property insurance has no significant influence in property insurance demand. Finally according to the result of modeling in put forward some suggestions on the development of Chinese property insurance market.?Keywords: property insur