欧洲央行：口头干预的风险上升.pdfVIP

FLASH | EUROPE Please refer to important information and 26 March 2019 MAR disclosures at the end of this report G10 INTEREST RATES ECB: Increasing risk of verbal intervention KEY MESSAGES The sharp fall in 5y5y Euro inflation, coupled with the We highlighted recently that inflation expectations weakness in manufacturing PMIs since the last ECB appear to become unanchored. We now think that the meeting has led to an unanchoring of inflation expectations likelihood of verbal intervention has gone up (see also: Is the ECB behind the curve?). substantially. In the absence of credible easing measures that raise In an unusual move, inflation expectations fell (from T-1 to inflation expectations back up, further bull flattening of T+1) on the ECBs TLTRO III announcement on 7 March the euro swap curve seems likely. (see Table 1). We examined other recent ECB monetary policy announcements and found that there were only two other occasions (December 2011 and December 2015) when 5y5y forward inflation fell post ECB action. That happened after TLTRO I and when th