欧洲央行是否落后于形势.pdfVIP

FLASH | EUROPE 25 March 2019 G10 INTEREST RATES Is the ECB behind the curve? KEY MESSAGE Inflation expectations are becoming unanchored again. The moves this month have been large. Interestingly, the Inflation expectations are becoming unanchored again, first one came the day after the March ECB: EUR 5y5y and we think the market may judge the ECB’s recent inflation swap moved from 1.50% on 6 March (the day action, and remaining toolkit, potentially insufficient in before the ECB) to 1.44% in on 8 March (the day after the the face of renewed economic headwinds. ECB). On Friday 22 March, it dropped 6bp after disappointing eurozone PMIs. We see a risk of a reconnection between the curve slope and forward inflation as seen in 2016. This implies a The market could be losing faith. Extending the forward potential bull flattening in 10s30s if inflation expectations guidance by three months restated the obvious, in our drop further. view: the markets are not pricing any move until at least the December 2019 ECB. This leads us, and apparently the market, to wonder whether the ECB is waiting for its TRADE UPDATES