广东省农村社会养老保险方案的设计及精算分析-概率统计专业论文.docxVIP

广东省农村社会养老保险方案的设计及鞘算分析The 广东省农村社会养老保险方案的设计及鞘算分析 The design and actuarial analysis of rural social endowment insurance scheme for Guangdong province Major：Probability and Mathematics Statistic Name： Zouxia Supervisor：Adjunct Prof．Shibin Song ABSTRACT At the present stage，our country is implementing”urban enterprise’S employee endowment insurance”system and’。rural social endowment insurance”system． However,both of them have some limitations and deficiencies，such as narrow coverage，unreasonable standard of paying the fees，hard self balance for the pension fund，which can’t meet our country’S financial economic strength，people’S economic strength and living standard situation very well．This requires US to structure a new kind of endowment insurance scheme for such many crowds as urban enterprise’S worker,peasant—worker and peasant，Etc． According to the character of crowds of economic activity in urban and rural areas，this text adopts JPOP一1 algorithm to make the age·divided life table for the peasants of Guangdong Province，and analyses the structure of insurance crowd and its change．Then，this text sets up actuarial models for revenue and expenditure of the rural endowment insurance’S pension funds． Finally,this text simulates and calculates the revenue and expenditure situation of the pension funds in 2005-2054 of basic pension system，which draws the conclusion： Compared with”urban enterprise’S employee endowment insurance”system and old ”rural social endowment insurance”system，the paying and drawing standard of the new scheme are more reasonable to meet economic condition of the people in urban 中山大学硕，上学位论文and 中山大学硕，上学位论文 and rural areas well．Furthermore，during the following 50 years，the new scheme will mn very well．Even if when income is smaller than expense，the deficit will still be smaller than pension allowance expense for the government，which will lighten the financial burden well．If suitable earning ratio(such as 2．8％)is chosen，Guangdong province can not only fili