几种基于模糊信息集成算子的组合预测模型及其应用-运筹学与控制论专业论文.docxVIP

Ab Ab stract Combination forecasting call improve accuracy and spread risk of forecasting effectively,which is obtained widely application in the fields of social-economic， eco·environment and management，etc． Currently,there two problems in the study of combination forecasting model primarily．For one thing，the key step of combination forecasting is to determine weighting coefficient of every single forecasting methods，and aggregate results of single methods into a combination forecasting value．In existing combination forecasting models，the process of aggregation is usually realized by information aggregation operators，which has made remarkable achievements．However,those models only consider the information itself obtained by single forecasting methods， and ignore interactive relationship among them．For another,in previous combination forecasting models，taking the form as determined real numbers，weighting coefficients and forecasted information cannot reflect performance of each single forecasting method comprehensively；and with the increase of uncertainty and complexity in social—economic system，it is necessary to describe objectives with fuzzy data in different levels． Therefore，it is worthy to study the problems existed in combination forecasting models and research how to consider the interactions of all kinds of single forecasting methods and construct the fuzzy combination forecasting models theoretically and practically．This paper focuses on the problems mentioned above，and discusses four respects of combination forecasting models as follows： (1)The continuous interval combination forecasting model based on uncertain weighted power averaging(UWPA)operator is constructed applying power operator and continuous ordered weighted(COWA)operator．Meanwhile， concepts of non-inferior and superior combination forecasting are proposed，and non-inferior property of new model is proved．Moreover，the illustrated example demonstrates validity of this method，and sensitivity an